Smokers
know cigarettes cause cancer. Californians know an earthquake will
come eventually. Why do people frequently ignore warnings? What
warnings does God have your society? Are you paying attention or
ignoring them? (Serendipity Bible 10th anniversary edition,
page 1067).
People
are generally well aware that disaster could strike most any day,
most any way. For example, as I sit here this morning writing my blog
an airplane headed for Albert Whitted Airport could crash through the
roof of my study and kill me instantly. Therefore, a sane approach to
life simply requires us to undergo a process, however subconscious,
of probability analysis. If the probabilities are relatively slim we
ignore them out of the necessity for psychological peace and for the
practical need to focus on immediate tasks at hand.. This is
something we all do all the time. It is only when a disaster actually
occurs that we love to get on our accusatory stump and rail at the
foolhardiness of the unfortunate.
An
essential need becomes the ability to take precise measurements of
probability sometimes years in advance. But this is most often
impossible so we assume a fatalistic stance – a person will go when
his time comes. Or as regards my immediate neighborhood, a hurricane
hasn't hit Tampa Bay dead-on for years, so I will chance not spending
many thousands of dollars making my home more hurricane proof. An
android tablet purchase for me today has immediate rewards and offers immediate reinforcement, while spending the same money on a storm
window is speculative and the hurricane may not come for years or
ever.
It
would be interesting to speculate what would be my behavior if I knew
for certain that in five years a hurricane will hit here. Will I
began to get serious at this moment, next week, next month, next
year, year after next, in three years? And what issues will erode any
initial determination to take decisive action? I can have immediate
needs – such as new tires for the car or medical bills. Beyond
that there are connotations that trouble me even though the
prediction is certain – that is, the forecast still retains some of
the feelings I have towards predictions in general which in my
experience always carry a significant amount of uncertainly and
subjectivity. Thus, the smoker may assess that the critics of smoking
have ulterior motives and are just intrusive meddlers in other
people's affairs and trying to gain control where it doesn't belong.
The
bottom line for me is that when I travel over the Bayway and see
condominiums built adjacent to what could be wildly turbulent and
destructive waters, I have to admit despite this no-brainer
deadringer for foolishness, many retirees have settled there and
lived out their lives taking in magnificent views of the sea in
unsurpassed tranquility.
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